The Stone City

Words Made to Last

Friday, January 06, 2006

Betting Man

On Tradesports, Alito futures continue to creep upwards, with the mid-market confirmation probability now trading at 91.75%. Interestingly, the "60 or more votes" contract has not strengthened commensurately, so the market implied probability of a filibuster is apparently dropping.

The chance of a successful filibuster (50 votes in favor, but no confirmation) is 1.6 bid, 4.8 offered (wide because it's a spread between two contracts).